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Our most recent note on FirstRand entitled “FNB in the driving seat” was issued two months ago when the share price was R60. Our price target was R67, which has now been reached. This gives FirstRand the distinction of being the outperformer of the big four banks year-to-date.
Sasol - We all invest in companies like Sasol for dividend pay-outs, with the current situation at hand it looks less likely over the next two yearsOil & Gas Producers - 30 October 2019
With the delayed release of the financial results for the twelve months ended 30 June 2019 it is now confirmed that the dividend has been passed. Ingham Analytics give their latest view on Sasol and shall re-evaluate their earnings outlook in the light of this latest disclosure.
We rate Sanlam and Santam as shares to consider owning. They have historically been relatively resilient, and we regard both as being historically well-managed businesses.
The share has been under pressure since 22 May, the date the company announced that costs at the project would again overrun. Ingham Analytics have just released a report which says there are balance sheet concerns and estimates at which point Sasol would have to halt paying dividends but the share does still hold value.
Ingham Analytics says building and construction has had a torrid time and the sector as represented on the JSE is a shadow of what it was. Raubex has flagged that headline earnings for the first six months of the 2020 financial year will be around 70% higher. 70% seems like a whopping increase. So, is this a new dawn for the sector? Ingham Analytics examine the context of this.
Ingham Analytics says healthcare stocks Mediclinic, Life Healthcare, and Netcare have been pummelled and as if the National Health Insurance Bill wasn’t enough there is now the Health Market Inquiry report, creating further uncertainty. They assess the implications for the big three hospital groups. The insights, as usual, are to the point and a must read.
For investors looking to play the recent oil disruption theme, BHP is one stock that benefits from higher oil prices. The pre-dawn attacks on 14 September knocked out more than half of Saudi Arabia’s output or 5% of global oil supply, which is 5.7m barrels per day. The Petroleum segment contributed 16.4% of Group EBITDA in F2019, which compares with iron ore at 48.0%. A $1/bbl change in oil has a not inconsiderable $40m impact on EBITDA if that applied for a full year. The biggest is iron ore with a $1/ton change from a base case having an approximate $230m impact up or down on EBITDA. We also alert investors to positive developments in the prices of nickel, gold and silver which benefit BHP. The F2020 forward gross dividend yield is 6.6%, falling to 4.7% in F2021. The one-year forward price earnings ratio is 10.9x, increasing to 15.2x in F2021. On a DCF basis, which allows for the variability in commodities, our fair value DCF is $22.33 or AUD32.83 at an exchange rate of AUD1.47/$. This translates to £15.72 on the LSE (including a 12% discount) and R293 per share on the JSE at an exchange rate of ZAR18.61/£. For traders, the stock is a little on the high side relative to our through-thecycle fair value but not unreasonably so given the commodity drivers we refer to in this note. We recommend traders either take short positions or sell rallies
Ingham Analytics is close to the action at Sasol and has issued several insightful notes since 4 April when “Pain at the pump, gain on the share” was issued. “Louisiana Blues”, issued on 24 May, was especially pertinent given the newsflow that has come out on the Lake Charles Chemicals project of late. On 6 June, a note entitled “Bouncing Back” Ingham Analytics pointed out that the exchange rate would have to strengthen significantly and oil to weaken below $40/bbl for Sasol to be approximately breakeven over a full financial year, based on F2019 production metrics. Then, on 16 July, the note entitled “Implications of the rand at R14/USD” examined what effect a stronger rand would have on earnings. “Confidence takes a knock” was issued on 20 August and again dealt with the Lake Charles issue. At a time of great uncertainty on Sasol, Ingham Analytics has dispassionately guided investors through the noise.
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BHP is a good option for South African investors seeking alternatives in mining without the geographic and political risk of JSE mining stocks. BHP has no mining in South Africa, having effectively divested through the unbundling of South32. It is a significant player in iron ore and has a large market capitalisation. The Chinese import price of 62% Fe content ore has firmed this week to over $92 per dry metric ton, having eased back to $80 at the end of August. Iron ore prices remain buoyant and further is colour is provided to investor on that. We take the view that whilst their latest earnings estimates are predicated on a lower through – the – cycle assumption, that iron ore is supportive of earnings for the foreseeable future. Interestingly, firmer gold and silver prices whilst relatively small in Group earnings, is also positive. There is no change to the DCF fair value estimates. Netting out iron debt and cash, iron ore is 60% of their value.
The reported results for the twelve months ended 30 June 2019 were good with FNB in the driving seat in percentage growth and overall contribution. Ingham Analytics had forecast growth in normalised earnings at 5.9% and the result is 5.6% growth for the year. In this punchy analysis Ingham does give the salient points of the result and it has a warning about the banking sector as whole. They reiterate that banks as an asset class are sensitive to bond yields, which, are affected by negative political and fiscal factors. There is no change to estimates for earnings following these annual results and the target price is unchanged.