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Fed fortune cookie follies
Banks - 23 August 2020

Andrew Kinsey’s latest note analyses the Federal Reserve’s latest minutes and the implications of that for asset prices in the US and around the world. There is a good reason the note is entitled “Fed fortune cookie follies.”

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Stimulus surge takes the sting out of COVID-19
Banks - 19 August 2020

Moody’s, the ratings agency, made the point recently that COVID-19 is driving business activity in America. How so? Are there risks and what about South Africa? Are there lessons to be learned? Here is a startling statistic. The M2 measure of the money supply in the... Read More

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Rolling in the Deep…..
Banks - 13 August 2020

It seems an eternity since West Texas Intermediate (WTI) May Futures traded at minus $40/bbl. Today, a similar contract is plus $42/bbl. Incidences such as these do not occur in isolation. Further disruption in the oil patch is not out of the question following the catastrophic... Read More

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Iron ore up, all else down
Mining - 10 August 2020

How high can BHP go? It is already a shade below AUD40 on the Australian exchange whilst on the JSE the stock is up 20% year to date (and almost 100% since the low in March, assisted by rand weakness). In “Iron ore up, all else... Read More

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Going, going for a song
Oil & Gas Producers - 4 August 2020

Sasol is in the spotlight. In “Going, going for a song” Ingham Analytics say that if Sasol management keep flogging the shareholders’ silver as they’re attempting to do with the potential sale of sixteen air separation units located in Secunda to Air Liquide, they’ll have to... Read More

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Bedazzled
Banks - 3 August 2020

Forget hyperinflation as the reason for gold nudging $2,000/oz. The answer lies in the US 10-year Treasury. Gold is rising at the same time as Treasury interest rates are falling. Odd? Quite the contrary say Ingham Analytics in “Bedazzled.” If we thought central banks were forever... Read More

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Forever blowing bubbles...
Banks - 27 July 2020

The Swiss franc has been appreciating – against the US dollar – and the US dollar index has been under pressure since a brief spike in late March as COVID-19 gripped the world. Ingham Analytics make an analogous point that central bankers are all fans of... Read More

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Tencent on top of its games
Media - 26 July 2020

International mobile games are increasingly important for Tencent, growing ahead of its China revenues. Tencent is also acquiring content through acquisitions. Tencent is currently in exclusive talks to acquire Leyou Technologies, the Nasdaq and Hong Kong listed games developer. This is not a small company, with... Read More

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Tech and the Treasury 10s
Banks - 21 July 2020

A dichotomy between equity and fixed income markets in the US spells danger for investors riding the Tech boom post-March this year. Now is the time to take out an effective hedge. What might that hedge be? In “Tech and the Treasury 10s” top trader Andrew... Read More

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Saudi Arabian stalking horse
Banks - 19 July 2020

Is Barloworld in play? In “Saudi Arabian stalking horse” Ingham Analytics deduce that this could be the case. And it may come from a surprising source, a Middle Eastern business that has already built a sizeable stake. There is an opportunistic element to this with the... Read More

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